Why Auctions and Comps in the Card Market Are Misleading
Auctions are often seen as a fair way to determine an item’s "true value," but I strongly disagree—they’re far from reliable. Many people still trust auctions to reflect an accurate market price, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. The reality is, auctions are ripe for manipulation and heavily influenced by factors beyond an item’s actual worth.
The concept of "true value" is subjective and splits into three perspectives: what the seller hopes to receive, what the buyer is willing to pay, and what the market appears to dictate. Ultimately, though, value lies with the owner. They possess the item and set their own price in their mind. The buyer, meanwhile, has a budget and a desired price, but if no deal is reached, the seller keeps the item, and the buyer keeps their money. The seller, in most cases, has the financial stability to hold onto the item without worry. So, does an auction truly reveal an item’s value? Not at all.
Auctions are chaotic, driven by variables like timing, audience size, and item placement, none of which are tightly controlled. For example, a valuable trading card might sell for a low price—not because it’s worthless, but because it’s buried under a flood of high-profile listings, getting little attention due to poor timing or placement. On the flip side, a low-value card can be hyped up through shill bidding or bought at an inflated price by a diehard fan, a wealthy buyer who doesn’t care about cost, or someone trying to artificially pump the market before a big season. Does that suddenly make the card "valuable"? Hardly. It’s just a snapshot of a manipulated moment.
Worse still, "comps" (comparable sales) are abused by those in the card market—I refer to as "Comp Whores"—who lean on comps only when it benefits their agenda. Comps lack clear boundaries or criteria to distinguish valid from invalid sales, making them a playground for manipulation. For instance, a seller with multiple copies of a card might orchestrate a scheme, colluding with friends or associates to buy and sell the same card at escalating prices. This sets a false "market value," inflating comps over time. Once the price hits a desirable level, the original seller can repurchase the cards at a lower cost from their network and flip them for a hefty profit. Alternatively, to depress a card’s value, they might flood the market with lowball sales, tanking comps, then scoop up copies at bargain prices to hold and resell later when the market rebounds, often right before a season when demand spikes.
This isn’t speculation—it’s a known tactic at card shows and online platforms like eBay. You’ll see "competitors" who appear to be bidding against each other but are actually colluding to drive prices up or down. For example, a group might push a rare Pokémon or Magic: The Gathering card to an absurd high during a slow season, creating a comp that justifies higher asking prices for their stock. Or they’ll dump common cards at a loss to lower comps, making it easier to buy out competitors’ inventory cheaply. These tactics exploit the lack of regulation in the card market, where no governing body sets standards for what constitutes a legitimate comp.
Compare this to the housing market. Imagine a gated community where neighbors buy each other’s homes at half their value, hold them for a few years, then sell them back at the same low price. This could artificially slash property values, lowering taxes for the group. Or, in a down market, they could buy up multiple homes cheaply, then sell to a colluding buyer at an inflated price to boost comps, allowing them to flip the remaining homes for a profit. In real estate or the stock market, such "pump and dump" schemes are illegal, with strict regulations and oversight from agencies like the SEC or state real estate boards to protect consumers. But in the card market? It’s the Wild West. No rules, no oversight, just a free-for-all where crooks and cons thrive.
This manipulation hurts honest collectors and distorts the hobby. New collectors overpay for cards with inflated comps, thinking they’re investing wisely, only to find the market crash when the manipulators move on. Seasoned collectors struggle to sell at fair prices when comps are artificially depressed. And the irony? These manipulators throw tantrums when their schemes unravel. When savvy collectors refuse to bite on overpriced cards, the cons cry, “You don’t know this card’s value!” Yet when someone offers a lowball price based on their own rigged comps, they scoff, “That’s way too low!” They argue against the same tactics they use when it doesn’t suit them—a textbook case of hypocrisy.
The card market’s lack of regulation is its biggest flaw. Unlike other asset classes, there’s no standardized framework for comps, no requirement for transparent sales data, and no penalties for collusion or market rigging. Platforms like eBay and auction houses profit from transaction fees, so they have little incentive to police manipulation. Meanwhile, collectors are left navigating a minefield of skewed prices and fake comps. Some collectors have started fighting back, using tools like price tracking sites or community forums to call out suspicious sales, but these are stopgap measures. Without industry-wide regulation—clear rules defining valid comps, mandatory disclosure of bidder relationships, or bans on shill bidding—the card market will remain a haven for manipulators.
And while this cannot be said for every transaction that takes place. it is wise for buyers and sellers to accept that a great number of auctions and comps are unreliable at best, fraudulent at worst. They don’t reflect an item’s true worth; they reflect who’s best at gaming the system. Trusting them to set a fair price is a mistake, and the sooner collectors wise up, the better. The card market could be a vibrant, fair hobby, but as long as it’s left “unregulated”, it’ll be a playground for those looking to scam rather than trade.
Tarek "Otis" Maalouf